Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 87.5%
Forecasters
82
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Dec 14, 25, 5:18 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
PolymarketRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by Dec 31? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsRussia-Ukraine ceasefire or peace deal to be reached by the end of 2026?
FutuurRussia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a presidential election in Ukraine, before a ceasefire between it and Russia occurs? (See description)
Manifold MarketsRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- A ceasefire will resolve YES if a formal agreement between Russia and Ukraine to halt hostilities is reached and takes effect at any point during 2026.
- The ceasefire must involve a cessation of military operations along the entire front line, not partial or temporary truces.
- Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the governments of Russia, Ukraine, or the United States, or reporting from major international news outlets (Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera) confirming the ceasefire has commenced.
- If no such agreement is reached by December 31, 2026, the market resolves NO.
- Renewed negotiations began in 2025 after Donald Trump became president, with Trump's administration broadly agreeing with Russian proposals for ending the war.
Open markets
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POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
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+39 more outcomes
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- Jon Ossoff17%
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+45 more outcomes
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POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
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+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
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- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
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- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 88% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2026? resolve?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria