Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 93.2%
Forecasters
85
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingDec 14, 25, 5:18 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
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PolymarketWill there be a presidential election in Ukraine, before a ceasefire between it and Russia occurs? (See description)
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- A ceasefire will resolve YES if a formal agreement between Russia and Ukraine to halt hostilities is reached and takes effect at any point during 2026.
- The ceasefire must involve a cessation of military operations along the entire front line, not partial or temporary truces.
- Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the governments of Russia, Ukraine, or the United States, or reporting from major international news outlets (Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera) confirming the ceasefire has commenced.
- If no such agreement is reached by December 31, 2026, the market resolves NO.
- Renewed negotiations began in 2025 after Donald Trump became president, with Trump's administration broadly agreeing with Russian proposals for ending the war.
