Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 83%
Forecasters
26
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingMay 13, 26, 9:17 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by which date?
PolymarketSaudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement before November 1?
Manifold MarketsRussia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
PolymarketRussia-Ukraine ceasefire or peace deal to be reached by the end of 2026?
FutuurRussia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRussia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
Manifold MarketsRules
Will be resolved the same as the similar Polymarket question.
- Polymarket description:
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
- A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date.