Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 9:52 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 89.8%
Forecasters
20
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleOct 14, 26, 10:30 AM UTCOct 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by which date?
PolymarketRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by Dec 31? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsHouthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
PolymarketIf Russia secures a substantively pro-Russian ceasefire agreement with Ukraine, what will be the causes? [add responses]
Manifold MarketsHouthi military action against Saudi Arabia on?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if an official de Jure AND de facto bilateral ceasefire agreement between Saudi Arabia (or the Saudi-led coalition) and the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah) is publicly announced before November 1, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC.
- To resolve YES, the ceasefire agreement must be confirmed by official statements from both parties or by an official mediating body, such as the UN Special Envoy for Yemen or the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Oman.
- Unilateral announcements: A unilateral declaration of a ceasefire by either side without mutual agreement or acceptance by the opposing party does not qualify and will resolve NO.
- Localized or humanitarian truces: Informal, unconfirmed reports, or limited local pauses in fighting do not qualify unless formally framed as a bilateral ceasefire agreement by both entities.
- If no formal ceasefire agreement is reached before November 1, 2026, the market resolves NO.
