![If Russia secures a substantively pro-Russian ceasefire agreement with Ukraine, what will be the causes? [add responses]](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Ffirebasestorage.googleapis.com%2Fv0%2Fb%2Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%2Fo%2Fuser-images%252Fdefault%252F2dzfeHqkNR.jpeg%3Falt%3Dmedia%26token%3D4b3e7d50-17d4-4b16-8d87-cde00945f30c&w=128&q=80)
If Russia secures a substantively pro-Russian ceasefire agreement with Ukraine, what will be the causes? [add responses]
PoliticsOne-OffGeopoliticsRussia / Ukraine3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Ukraine runs out of soldiers - further mobilization not feasible 70.4%Leader of 6 outcomes
Ukraine runs out of soldiers - further mobilization not feasible 70.4%Forecasters
18
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleFeb 22, 24, 7:44 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 9:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
This bet will be on the cause and conditions of a potential ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
- Specifically - If Russia secures a ceasefire favorable to its interests by end of war, what would be judged by experts as the primary causal driver that enabled this outcome?
- The bet option/s will be resolved as "YES" if:
- A ceasefire is achieved that experts broadly agree substantially favors russian interests AND
- The panel of experts determines one or more of the options listed is the primary driver enabling Russia to achieve a favorable outcome
- If a ceasefire is achieved on terms favorable to Ukraine or the West the bet will resolve as "N/A".
