Russia-Ukraine ceasefire or peace deal to be reached by the end of 2026?
GeopoliticsQuarterlyRussia / Ukraine2mo
FutuurCheck availabilityVerified resolution dataCurrent implied probability
No 73%
No 73%Market quality
37 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$3.4K
Medium liquidityTraders
12
Comments
0
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
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PolymarketRules
This event predicts whether a ceasefire or peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine will be formally reached at any time between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive).
- For this market, a qualifying outcome means an officially announced ceasefire or peace agreement accepted by both parties.
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official announcements from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, or jointly acknowledged agreements communicated through official channels.
- If an officially announced ceasefire or peace agreement accepted by both Russia and Ukraine is confirmed during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- Temporary battlefield pauses, unilateral declarations, or unaccepted proposals will not count.