By the time a ceasefire or peace treaty between Ukraine & Russia is signed, will UA partially control Crimea?
GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / Ukraine2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 7:03 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 73%
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48
Question type
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
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Updated 7 hours ago
StaleSep 13, 23, 8:40 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire or peace deal to be reached by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill Russia agree to a peace treaty that gives Ukraine control of Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk before 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill Ukraine agree to a peace treaty that gives Russia control of Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk before 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill Ukraine have partial control over Crimea by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsRussia to control Crimea through the end of 2026?
FutuurWill Ukraine control any of Crimea before it takes back most of Luhansk or Donetsk?
Manifold MarketsRules
The question will resolve to yes if the interactive map of the Institute for the Study of War shows that Ukraine controls any part of the Crimea Oblast at the time when a ceasefire (or a peace treaty) is signed.
- The Crimea Oblast is as defined in the Ukrainian maps before the 2014 Russian invasion.
- It includes any outlying islands and other natural formations but excludes rigs or other man-made structures.
- If there is no ceasefire or peace signed until the end of 2026, the question will resolve to NA.
