Will Ukraine control any of Crimea before it takes back most of Luhansk or Donetsk?
GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / Ukraine2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 7:45 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 52.1%
Forecasters
83
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleOct 8, 22, 2:10 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 12:01 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Suggested resolution critera.
- This market resolves "Yes" if, according to the Institute for Study War, Ukraine is in control of any territory in Crimea.
- This market resolves "No" if, according to the Institute for Study War, Ukraine has control of 80% of either Luhansk or Donetsk Oblasts.
- This market resolves "Ambiguous" if neither happens or if there is a nuclear strike prior to either happening.
- Oct 8, 3:22pm: Will Ukraine invade Crimea before it takes back Luhansk or Donetsk? → Will Ukraine control any of Crimea before it takes back most of Luhansk or Donetsk?
- Close date updated to 2024-01-01 12:01 am