Will Ukraine control any part of Crimea for at least a week before the end of 2026?
GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / Ukraine2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 88.4%
Forecasters
19
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleJan 1, 26, 5:36 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
Whether Ukraine has "control" of territory is deferred to credible sources (e.g. Critical Threats, BBC).
- "any part" means any single location.
- If Ukrainian forces make a beachhead via naval landing on the Crimean coast and hold it for a week, this would count.
- If Ukrainian forces control a farmhouse north of Perekop on the Crimean side of the boundary, this would count.
- "at least a week" means continuously holding that single location.
- If Ukrainian forces hold onto a single location discontinuously (have it one day, then lose it the next), or hold onto different locations for a continuous week, neither of these would count.