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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Geopolitics
  3. U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?

U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?

2.5% (24h)One-OffGeopoliticsRussia / Ukraine6mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 8%-0.0%
Market quality

61 / 100

Medium quality
24h Volume

$17.1K

Liquidity

$19.5K

Medium liquidity
Bid / Ask

6.0% / 9.0%

Spread

50.0%

Wide spread
7d Change

-2.0%

Market data

Updated 6 minutes ago

Nov 5, 25, 5:57 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes8%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
  • Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
  • The resolution source for this market will be the U.S.
  • Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Active in these topics

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Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
  • Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
  • The resolution source for this market will be the U.S.
  • Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.