PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityYes 5%
Market quality
56 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$213.4
Liquidity
$37.6K
High liquidityBid / Ask
4.1% / 5.0%
Spread
21.9%
Wide spread7d Change
-0.2%
Market data
Updated 18 minutes ago
Jan 5, 26, 8:28 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes5%
Compare venues· No
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall92% match · auto | High | 93% | +86pt | $1.3K | $207.8K | 18 minutes ago | Open → |
| PolymarketThis page | Medium | 95% | +88pt | $213.4 | $37.6K | 18 minutes ago |
Also available on Kalshi
Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?
0.4%5mo
93%
+0.4%7%
91 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$994.4K
24h Vol$1.3K
KALSHIRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.
- A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified.
- Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.7k93.6%KALSHINo4d ago
KALSHINo4d ago$6.8k94.5%KALSHINo4d ago
KALSHINo4d agoVolume trend
$213Jul 324d of dataJul 26
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.
- A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified.
- Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.