US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
0.1 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffMiddle EastUS Politics3mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 95%-0.1pt
Market quality
68 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$8.2
Liquidity
$28.3K
High liquidityBid / Ask
4.3% / 5.0%
Spread
0.7 pt
Tight spreadComments
25
7d Change
-0.1 pts
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Jan 5, 26, 8:28 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
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Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.
- A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified.
- Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.