Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 97.3%
Forecasters
46
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJan 11, 26, 2:27 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by which date?
PolymarketWill the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?
KalshiWill Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
KalshiUS recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
PolymarketWill Reza Pahlavi visit Iran in 2026?
KalshiWill Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Reza Pahlavi physically enters Iran at any point between now and 11:59PM Iran Standard Time December 31, 2026.
- Resolution requires credible reporting from major news outlets confirming his entry into Iranian territory.
- The market resolves NO if he does not enter Iran by the end of 2026.
- Reza Pahlavi, 65, has lived in exile in the United States for almost five decades, having left Iran in 1978 before the Islamic Revolution.
- Beginning on 28 December 2025, mass demonstrations erupted across Iran amid a deepening economic crisis and a general dissatisfaction with the Islamic Republic government, evolving into the largest uprising since the 2022 Mahsa Amini protests, and potentially the largest since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.