KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 92%
Market quality
89 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$15.7K
Liquidity
$724.5K
High liquidityBid / Ask
7.5% / 7.8%
Spread
0.3 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Jan 8, 26, 7:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?
KalshiWill Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
KalshiWill Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
PolymarketWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by which date?
PolymarketUS recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
PolymarketWill Reza Pahlavi lead Iran this year?
Manifold MarketsRules
If Reza Pahlavi has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Iran before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The Guardianlocal news outlets with verifiable mastheads in IranReza Pahlaviofficial government sources of Iranofficial representatives or offices of Reza PahlaviThe New York Timesthe Associated PressReutersPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalCNNFox NewsMSNBCCNBC
- Physical presence within the geographic boundaries of the area is required.
- Flying over without landing, layovers during which the person remains in the airplane or airport, virtual or remote appearances, future visit plans, or (unless explicitly specified) presence in adjacent international waters or solely within embassy or consulate grounds do NOT constitute a visit.
- International airports are considered within the boundaries of their host jurisdiction.
- A visit that began before the specified time period and is ongoing as of its start does not count; however, if the person departs and re-enters the area during the time period, the re-entry constitutes a new visit and does count.
Open markets
Middle EastPOLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+1.4pt65%
- October 31-5.0pt34%
- September 30-3.0pt7%
+17 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $31M
- 24h Vol
- $754.1K
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No+1.0pt86%
- Yes-1.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $68.4M
- 24h Vol
- $595.1K
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No-5.0pt75.3%
- Yes+5.0pt24.8%
- Total Vol
- $12.5M
- 24h Vol
- $469.6K
POLYMARKETSaudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by which date?
- October 31+12.3pt88%
- September 30+27.5pt57%
- September 22-0.5pt1%
+1 more outcomes
POLYMARKETNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms+0.4pt13%
- Save the Children-0.1pt10%
- Yulia Navalnaya8%
+28 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Before Jan 1, 2029+3.0pt73%
- Before Jul 1, 2028+3.0pt68%
- Before Jan 1, 2028+4.0pt56%
+10 more outcomes
- US-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
- Iran leadership change by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran in 2026??
- Kalshi prices No at 92% as of September 23, 2026.
- When does Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran in 2026? resolve?
- Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran in 2026? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Reza Pahlavi has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Iran before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.