PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 97%-0.2pt
Market quality
82 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$4K
Liquidity
$121.6K
High liquidityBid / Ask
3.0% / 3.3%
Spread
0.3 pt
Tight spreadComments
53
7d Change
-0.2 pts
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Mar 1, 26, 3:38 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran this year?
Manifold MarketsWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by which date?
PolymarketWill Reza Pahlavi visit Iran in 2026?
KalshiWill the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?
KalshiUS recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
PolymarketReza Pahlavi enters Iran by end of year 2026
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
- Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
- Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
- Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
Prediction Source Comparison
2 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for CoinRithm reference is 4%. Quotes span about 2 percentage points between the widest venues.
CoinRithm reference 4% · 2 venues · 2 pt venue spread
Open markets
Middle EastPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-6.0pt74%
- September 18-6.0pt69%
- September 11-10.0pt61%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.2M
- 24h Vol
- $423K
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+3.0pt79.2%
- Yes-3.0pt20.8%
- Total Vol
- $10.9M
- 24h Vol
- $285.8K
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+2.8pt57.6%
- Benjamin Netanyahu+1.0pt28.3%
- Naftali Bennett-1.0pt7.1%
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.3pt49.6%
- October 31-1.0pt29.1%
- September 30-1.0pt12%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- Israel closes its airspace by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Crude Oil all time high by which date?
- Al Nassr vs Abha
- Iran leadership change by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026??
- Polymarket prices No at 97% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? resolve?
- Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Where else is Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Kalshi.