PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
No · —
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Stored reference
No 98%
No 98%Market quality
72 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$6
Liquidity
$142.7K
High liquidityOpen interest
$340.9K
Bid / Ask
— / —
NoSpread
—
Comments
57
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Mar 1, 26, 3:38 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 0.1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
Top holders
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Market depth · No
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran this year?
Manifold MarketsWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by which date?
PolymarketWill Reza Pahlavi visit Iran in 2026?
KalshiWill the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?
KalshiUS recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
PolymarketReza Pahlavi enters Iran by end of year 2026
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
- Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
- Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
- Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
Prediction Source Comparison
2 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's cross-venue reference probability for CoinRithm reference is 4%. The venue spread is about 3 percentage points.
CoinRithm reference 4% · 2 venues · 3 pt venue spread