PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityYes 5%
Market quality
91 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$719.7
Liquidity
$108.1K
High liquidityBid / Ask
4.7% / 4.8%
Spread
2.1%
Tight spread7d Change
+0.3%
Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Mar 1, 26, 3:38 AMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes5%
Compare venues· No
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | High | 95% | +90pt | $719.7 | $108.1K | 5 minutes ago | |
 Kalshi79% match · verified | Medium | 95% | +90pt | $195.2 | $512.4K | 25 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Kalshi
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
1.0%5mo
95%
+1.0%5%
56 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$1.8M
24h Vol$195.2
KALSHIRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
- Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
- Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
- Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$720Jul 225d of dataJul 26
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
- Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
- Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
- Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.