Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?
0.4% (24h)One-OffMiddle East5mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityYes 7%+0.4%
Market quality
91 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$1.3K
Liquidity
$207.8K
High liquidityBid / Ask
6.8% / 6.9%
Spread
1.5%
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 17 minutes ago
Jan 8, 26, 3:00 PMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes7%
Compare venues· No
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiThis pageBest overall | High | 93% | +86pt | $1.3K | $207.8K | 17 minutes ago | |
 Polymarket92% match · auto | Medium | 95% | +88pt | $213.4 | $37.6K | 17 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Polymarket
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
5mo
95%
5%
56 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$618.6K
24h Vol$213.4
POLYMARKETRules
If the United States recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For purposes of this Contract, the United States recognizes Reza Pahlavi when the government of the United States takes official action acknowledging Reza Pahlavi specifically as the rightful or legitimate leader of Iran.
- Recognition must be explicit regarding Reza Pahlavi as an individual, not merely recognition of Iran as a state or recognition of whatever government happens to be in power.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.7k93.6%KALSHINo4d ago
KALSHINo4d ago$6.8k94.5%KALSHINo4d ago
KALSHINo4d agoVolume trend
$1.3kJul 225d of dataJul 26
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If the United States recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For purposes of this Contract, the United States recognizes Reza Pahlavi when the government of the United States takes official action acknowledging Reza Pahlavi specifically as the rightful or legitimate leader of Iran.
- Recognition must be explicit regarding Reza Pahlavi as an individual, not merely recognition of Iran as a state or recognition of whatever government happens to be in power.