Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?
0.1 pts (24h)One-OffMiddle East3mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 94%
Market quality
77 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$162.4
Liquidity
$208.1K
High liquidityBid / Ask
5.7% / 6.0%
Spread
0.3 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Jan 8, 26, 3:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If the United States recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:government of the United Statesforeign ministry of the United Stateshead of state of the United Stateshead of government of United Statesgovernment and foreign ministry of IranThe New York Timesthe Associated PressBloomberg NewsReutersAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalABCCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBCBBCNBC
- For purposes of this Contract, the United States recognizes Reza Pahlavi when the government of the United States takes official action acknowledging Reza Pahlavi specifically as the rightful or legitimate leader of Iran.
- Recognition must be explicit regarding Reza Pahlavi as an individual, not merely recognition of Iran as a state or recognition of whatever government happens to be in power.
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
Middle East
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026??
- Kalshi prices No at 94% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026? resolve?
- Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the United States recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Where else is Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Polymarket.