KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityYes 5%+1.0%
Market quality
56 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$195.2
Liquidity
$512.4K
High liquidityBid / Ask
4.0% / 5.0%
Spread
25.0%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 28 minutes ago
Jan 10, 26, 3:00 PMJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes5%
Compare venues· No
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall79% match · verified | High | 95% | +90pt | $740.6 | $108K | 8 minutes ago | Open → |
| KalshiThis page | Medium | 95% | +90pt | $195.2 | $512.4K | 28 minutes ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
0.1%5mo
95%
5%
80 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$11.7M
24h Vol$740.6
POLYMARKETRules
If Reza Pahlavi is appointed, elected, named, designated, or succeeded to the position as the head of state or government of Iran before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$195Jul 225d of dataJul 26
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If Reza Pahlavi is appointed, elected, named, designated, or succeeded to the position as the head of state or government of Iran before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.