If the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran falls by 2030, will Reza Pahlavi lead the new government a year later?
US PoliticsOne-OffGeopoliticsMiddle East4y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 80.7%
Forecasters
25
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleJan 8, 26, 12:14 AM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to hold power by December 31, 2030, AND Reza Pahlavi is the leader of Iran exactly one year after the commonly understood date of the regime's fall.
- The resolution of the linked market (https://manifold.markets/BaryLevy/will-the-government-of-the-islamic-9R2hcIEElO) determines whether the precondition is met.
- Resolves NO if the Islamic Republic falls by 2030 but: (1) anyone other than Pahlavi leads Iran one year post-fall; (2) Pahlavi assumes power but loses it within that one-year window; or (3) Pahlavi assumes power after the one-year deadline has passed.
- Resolves N/A if the Islamic Republic remains in power through 2030.
- Reza Pahlavi is an Iranian politician and dissident, and the eldest son of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the last shah of Iran.