Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastBefore 2050 71.2%Leader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
29
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleJan 3, 26, 7:09 AM UTCDec 31, 50, 12:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by 2030?
Manifold MarketsIf the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran falls by 2030, will Reza Pahlavi lead the new government a year later?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran get a nuclear weapon before the Islamic Republic falls?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran no longer be an Islamic Republic by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill Iran cease to be an Islamic Republic by EOY 2031?
Manifold MarketsUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolves based on the date when Wikipedia says the Islamic republic of Iran ends.
- May also resolve if there are substantial internal reforms that do not end the government but transform it substantially away from its current form.
- There must be an entry in the "Formation" section of Iran's Wikipedia page for this to count:
