Will Iran get a nuclear weapon before the Islamic Republic falls?
GeopoliticsOne-OffMiddle EastRussia / UkraineChina
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 85.4%
No 85.4%Forecasters
33
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleFeb 1, 25, 4:21 PM UTCJan 1, 00, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
If the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran falls by 2030, will Reza Pahlavi lead the new government a year later?
Manifold MarketsWill the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran no longer be an Islamic Republic by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill Iran cease to be an Islamic Republic by EOY 2031?
Manifold MarketsUS-Iran nuclear deal?
KalshiRules
Resolves YES if the Islamic Republic of Iran obtains a nuclear weapon before it collapses, according to reliable media outlets.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- I will not bet on this market.
- Update 2025-02-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Weapon Resolution Clarification:
- Dirty bomb does not count as a nuclear weapon.
- Refer to the linked example for further context: Metaculus page
