Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 58.2%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJul 27, 26, 1:27 AM UTCDec 31, 31, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, at any point on or before December 31, 2031, at 11:59 PM UTC, Iran officially ceases to be an Islamic Republic.
- This transition will be defined by the occurrence of any of the following events, as recognized by the United Nations and major international news outlets (such as Reuters, BBC, or the Associated Press):
- The official name of the nation is formally changed from the "Islamic Republic of Iran" to a name that does not include "Islamic Republic."
- The current constitution of Iran is abolished, permanently suspended, or formally amended to remove the system of Velayat-e Faqih (Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist) or the definition of the state as an Islamic Republic.
- The ruling clerical regime is overthrown, dissolved, or replaced by a governing authority that declares the end of the Islamic Republic, provided this change remains the de facto governing reality as of the resolution date.