Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 75.5%
Forecasters
211
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleDec 16, 24, 2:35 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 9:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall?
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Manifold MarketsWill Iran no longer be an Islamic Republic by the end of 2026?
FutuurPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if by January 1st 2030, the revolutionary regime in the Islamic Republic of Iran collapses, by international media consensus.
- Of course, death of Ali Khamenei in itself does not count as a regime change.
- Update 2025-06-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated the essence of the resolution criteria is whether the people in control of Tehran or most of Iran are still Ayatollahs or hold a similar Shiite-muslim religious title.
