PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityMojtaba Khamenei 79%+4.3%Leader of 123 outcomes
Market quality
100 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$311.5K
Liquidity
$1.8M
High liquidityBid / Ask
78.6% / 78.7%
Spread
0.1%
Tight spread7d Change
+6.0%
Market data
Updated 22 minutes ago
Mar 1, 26, 12:15 AMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Mojtaba Khamenei79%
Compare venues· Mojtaba Khamenei
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | High | 79% | — | $311.5K | $1.8M | 22 minutes ago | |
 Manifold Markets85% match · auto | — | 79% | — | — | — | 4 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Manifold Markets
Leader of Iran at end of 2026?
5mo
+0.9%78.8%
-0.6%10.4%
-0.1%2.3%
+21 more outcomes
Community forecast219 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
- For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
- Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
- If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
- Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
- Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$11.4k99.4%POLYMARKETWill Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? — NoALONE3618h ago
POLYMARKETWill Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? — NoALONE3618h ago$5.2k72.3%POLYMARKETWill Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? — Yesyungstalin2d ago
POLYMARKETWill Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? — Yesyungstalin2d ago$11.5k95.7%POLYMARKETWill Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? — NoALONE363d ago
POLYMARKETWill Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? — NoALONE363d ago$11.5k99.3%POLYMARKETWill Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? — NoALONE364d ago
POLYMARKETWill Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? — NoALONE364d ago$11.3k99.3%POLYMARKETWill Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? — NoALONE364d ago
POLYMARKETWill Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? — NoALONE364d ago$11.4k99.2%POLYMARKETWill Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? — NoALONE366d ago
POLYMARKETWill Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? — NoALONE366d ago$1.6k74.7%POLYMARKETWill Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? — Yesjustme00313d ago
POLYMARKETWill Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? — Yesjustme00313d ago$2.5k99.8%POLYMARKETWill Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? — No0x7cbd…98d117d ago
POLYMARKETWill Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? — No0x7cbd…98d117d agoVolume trend
$311.5kJul 225d of dataJul 26
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This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
- For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
- Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
- If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
- Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
- Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.