Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 22, 2026, 8:00 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current community forecastMojtaba Khamenei 78.8%+0.9%Leader of 24 outcomes
Forecasters
219
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 days ago
StaleMar 15, 26, 2:52 AMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Mojtaba Khamenei79%
Compare venues· Mojtaba Khamenei
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall85% match · auto | High | 79% | — | $305.4K | $1.8M | 2 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 79% | — | — | — | 4 days ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Iran leader end of 2026?
3.1%5mo
+3.1%79%
-2.7%6%
-0.6%4%
+120 more outcomes
100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$35M
24h Vol$305.4K
POLYMARKETRules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
- For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
- Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
- If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
- Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
- Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$11.4k99.4%POLYMARKETWill Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? — NoALONE3619h ago
POLYMARKETWill Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? — NoALONE3619h ago$5.2k72.3%POLYMARKETWill Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? — Yesyungstalin3d ago
POLYMARKETWill Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? — Yesyungstalin3d ago$11.5k95.7%POLYMARKETWill Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? — NoALONE363d ago
POLYMARKETWill Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? — NoALONE363d ago$11.5k99.3%POLYMARKETWill Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? — NoALONE364d ago
POLYMARKETWill Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? — NoALONE364d ago$11.3k99.3%POLYMARKETWill Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? — NoALONE365d ago
POLYMARKETWill Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? — NoALONE365d ago$11.4k99.2%POLYMARKETWill Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? — NoALONE366d ago
POLYMARKETWill Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? — NoALONE366d ago$1.6k74.7%POLYMARKETWill Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? — Yesjustme00313d ago
POLYMARKETWill Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? — Yesjustme00313d ago$2.5k99.8%POLYMARKETWill Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? — No0x7cbd…98d117d ago
POLYMARKETWill Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? — No0x7cbd…98d117d agoVolume trend
$32Jul 812d of dataJul 22
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This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
- For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
- Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
- If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
- Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
- Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.