Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastMojtaba Khamenei 81.4%Leader of 24 outcomes
Forecasters
221
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+0.9 pts
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleMar 15, 26, 2:52 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
0.5%
0.4%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
- For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
- Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
- If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
- Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
- Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Polymarket — Iran leader end of 2026? · Mojtaba Khamenei 89%
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-6.0pt74%
- September 18-6.0pt69%
- September 11-8.5pt62%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.2M
- 24h Vol
- $424.6K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+1.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)+0.4pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.1pt3%
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+3.0pt79.2%
- Yes-3.0pt20.8%
- Total Vol
- $10.9M
- 24h Vol
- $286K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.1pt49.1%
- October 31-1.0pt28.8%
- September 3011.9%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Leader of Iran at end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Mojtaba Khamenei at 81% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Leader of Iran at end of 2026? resolve?
- Leader of Iran at end of 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Leader of Iran at end of 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
- Where else is Leader of Iran at end of 2026? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Polymarket.