Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastMojtaba Khamenei 84.8%Leader of 24 outcomes
Forecasters
223
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+0.2 pts
Market data
Updated 55 minutes ago
LaggingMar 15, 26, 2:52 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
- For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
- Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
- If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
- Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
- Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Polymarket — Iran leader end of 2026? · Mojtaba Khamenei 89%