Will Canada sign a binding procurement contract for the Saab Gripen fighter before the end of 2026?
One-OffGeopoliticsAIEuropePolitics2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 61.5%
Forecasters
21
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleJan 22, 26, 4:15 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the US Congress pass, and the President sign, a binding frontier-AI law before 2027?
FutuurWill the Trump administration sign a bilateral agreement to acquire land in Greenland by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Ukraine sign an EU accession treaty by December 31, 2027?
PolymarketWill Ukraine sign an EU Accession Treaty by December 2027?
FutuurWill Ukraine sign an EU accession treaty by December 31, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the UK 🇬🇧 sign a free trade deal with the USA 🇺🇸 before 2028?
Manifold MarketsRules
Since the Cold War, Canada has tended to buy American aircraft—first the F-86 Sabre, then the CF-104 Starfighter, and from the early 1980s the CF-18—largely to ensure interoperability with the United States and credibility within NATO and NORAD.
- The current effort to replace the CF-18 has dragged on for more than a decade, stalled by shifting governments, cost anxiety, and unease about strategic dependence on Washington.
- After a prolonged competition, Canada selected the Lockheed Martin F-35 as its preferred replacement.
- Canada plans to buy 88 American F-35 aircraft, ordered in 2022 at a cost now estimated to be more than $27 billion.
- Canada has been reviewing the F-35 purchase since early 2025.
- The Swedish Saab Gripen fighter jet represents a tempting alternative.