Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastMojtaba Khamenei 79.5%Leader of 13 outcomes
Forecasters
54
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-1.0 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleJan 9, 26, 2:14 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
0.5%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who will be the next paramount leader of China?
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PolymarketWill Trump meet the Supreme Leader of Iran?
KalshiWill the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?
KalshiLeader of Iran at end of 2026?
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Manifold MarketsRules
The paramount leader is whoever the de facto leader of Iran is, regardless of their specific job title.
- Currently this is Supreme Leader the named outcome.
- If there is a complicated messy civil war, this goes by who controls the capital and governing apparatus.
- I intend to go by a similar standard to the CIA World Factbook or the Wikipedia infobox, though I don't commit to matching them if they're outdated or inaccurate.
- Update 2026-03-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Iran adopts a constitutional monarchy or similar system where the head of state has little de facto power, the market resolves to whoever holds the most de facto power (e.g., the head of government), not the nominal head of state.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.8M
- 24h Vol
- $574.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.1pt48.3%
- October 31-3.0pt28.9%
- September 30-4.0pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-4.0pt75%
- September 18-7.0pt69%
- September 11-13.0pt57%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $109.5K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will be paramount leader of Iran on January 1st 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices Mojtaba Khamenei at 80% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Who will be paramount leader of Iran on January 1st 2027? resolve?
- Who will be paramount leader of Iran on January 1st 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Who will be paramount leader of Iran on January 1st 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The paramount leader is whoever the de facto leader of Iran is, regardless of their specific job title.