Will Iran still be charging tolls in the strait of hermuz on January 1st, 2027?
One-OffMiddle EastGeopolitics3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 55.7%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleApr 3, 26, 7:40 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, as of 12:00 PM UTC on January 1st, 2027, the government of Iran or entities acting under its authority (such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) are actively requiring or enforcing the payment of tolls for the passage of commercial vessels through any part of the Strait of Hormuz.
- The market will resolve to NO if such a regime is not in effect at that time.
- Resolution will be determined by consensus of credible international reporting (e.g., major news outlets like Reuters, Associated Press, Bloomberg, or maritime industry monitors like Lloyd's List Intelligence).
- Clear evidence of a functional, officially sanctioned, or de facto toll collection system—where passage is conditioned upon payment—will satisfy the criteria for a YES.
- The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global maritime chokepoint connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Iran still be charging tolls in the strait of hermuz on January 1st, 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 56% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Iran still be charging tolls in the strait of hermuz on January 1st, 2027? resolve?
- Will Iran still be charging tolls in the strait of hermuz on January 1st, 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will Iran still be charging tolls in the strait of hermuz on January 1st, 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria