Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027?
PoliticsOne-OffGeopoliticsMiddle EastUS Politics2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 67.4%
Forecasters
72
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Feb 28, 26, 4:48 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027?
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- The US and Iran will be considered at war if military hostilities between the two nations are actively occurring on January 1st, 2027.
- This includes direct combat operations, sustained military strikes, or active armed conflict.
- Iran's retaliatory ballistic missile attacks on US military bases and Israel following the February 28, 2026 US and Israeli military strikes on Iran constitute evidence of active warfare.
- The market resolves YES if military operations continue through January 1st, 2027.
- The market resolves NO if a ceasefire, peace agreement, or cessation of hostilities has been established before that date, or if no active military conflict exists on that date.
