Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsGeopoliticsMiddle East2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 5:51 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 68.2%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleAug 1, 26, 4:23 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the US-Iran war end before the 2026 midterm elections?
Manifold MarketsWill Europe find a peaceful agreement with Iran to pass the Strait of Hormuz in 2026 while the US/Iran war continues?
Manifold MarketsTrump impeached before Iran war's end?
Manifold MarketsUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketUS-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- The US and Iran will be considered at war if military hostilities between the two nations are actively occurring on January 1st, 2027.
- This includes direct combat operations, sustained military strikes, or active armed conflict.
- Iran's retaliatory ballistic missile attacks on US military bases and Israel following the February 28, 2026 US and Israeli military strikes on Iran constitute evidence of active warfare.
- The market resolves YES if military operations continue through January 1st, 2027.
- The market resolves NO if a ceasefire, peace agreement, or cessation of hostilities has been established before that date, or if no active military conflict exists on that date.
