Will the US-Iran war end before the 2026 midterm elections?
US PoliticsGeopoliticsOne-OffMiddle East10d
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 94%
Forecasters
36
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 31 minutes ago
Apr 3, 26, 5:21 PM UTCNov 5, 26, 12:00 AM UTC
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Manifold MarketsUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if BOTH conditions are met before November 3, 2026:
- Formal agreement: A ceasefire, armistice, or peace agreement is signed by authorized representatives of both the US and Iranian governments.
- Operational cessation: Active military operations (airstrikes, ground combat, naval engagements) between US and Iranian forces have ceased for 14 or more consecutive days.
- Both conditions must be confirmed by at least two of: AP, Reuters, AFP, BBC, or NYT.
- Resolves NO if active hostilities are ongoing or no formal agreement exists as of November 3, 2026.
- Context: The US-Israel war against Iran began February 28, 2026.
