Which Representative or Senator will have the highest WAR in the 2026 Midterm US Congressional Elections?
7.4 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffElectionGeopolitics4moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastOther 43.7%-7.4ptLeader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
6
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+1.7 pts
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleJan 21, 25, 6:12 AM UTCFeb 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
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PolymarketRules
Earlier this week, Split Ticket released their 2024 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) Model for the 2024 US Election.
- This model measures how well a candidate outperformed "controlling for seat partisanship, incumbency, demographics, and money", and is intended to be a barometer for candidate quality in Congressional races in both the House and the Senate.
- For this market, I will only consider those who win their races (whether incumbent or not).
- 2024's top performers were Dusty Johnson (R|SD-AL) at 9.93, Angus King (I/D|ME-SEN) at 9.78, and Amy Klobuchar (D|MN-SEN) at 8.47.
- Feel free to add your own answers, however please follow the format established and do not add any duplicates.
- 2024 House WAR
