Which Representative or Senator will have the highest WAR in the 2026 Midterm US Congressional Elections?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElectionGeopolitics2026 US Midterms3mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 8:41 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastOther 49.2%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
10
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleJan 21, 25, 6:12 AM UTCFeb 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which incumbent Representative or Senator will have the lowest WAR in the 2026 Midterm US Congressional Elections?
Manifold MarketsWhich third party will successfully get elected a U.S. Representative, Senator, Governor, or President first?
Manifold MarketsWill a U.S. House Representative, Senator, or President/Vice President self identify as an effective altruist by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the US-Iran war end before the 2026 midterm elections?
Manifold MarketsWill the US ban mail-in ballots for the 2026 midterm elections?
FutuurUS-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
PolymarketRules
Earlier this week, Split Ticket released their 2024 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) Model for the 2024 US Election.
- This model measures how well a candidate outperformed "controlling for seat partisanship, incumbency, demographics, and money", and is intended to be a barometer for candidate quality in Congressional races in both the House and the Senate.
- For this market, I will only consider those who win their races (whether incumbent or not).
- 2024's top performers were Dusty Johnson (R|SD-AL) at 9.93, Angus King (I/D|ME-SEN) at 9.78, and Amy Klobuchar (D|MN-SEN) at 8.47.
- Feel free to add your own answers, however please follow the format established and do not add any duplicates.
- 2024 House WAR
