Which third party will successfully get elected a U.S. Representative, Senator, Governor, or President first?
Politics14y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 4:08 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastLibertarian Party 33.8%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
2
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleApr 2, 26, 4:45 PM UTCNov 3, 40, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which Representative or Senator will have the highest WAR in the 2026 Midterm US Congressional Elections?
Manifold MarketsWhich incumbent Representative or Senator will have the lowest WAR in the 2026 Midterm US Congressional Elections?
Manifold MarketsWill a U.S. House Representative, Senator, or President/Vice President self identify as an effective altruist by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Ohio elect a Senator and Governor from different parties?
PredictItWill Texas elect a Senator and Governor from different parties?
PredictItWill Iowa elect a Senator and Governor from different parties?
PredictItRules
Eligible Parties
- Any political party other than the Democratic or Republican parties counts.
- National, state, or local third parties are all included.
- Independents do not count.
- Candidate Requirements
- The candidate must run officially on the ballot as a nominee of the third party.
