Which incumbent Representative or Senator will have the lowest WAR in the 2026 Midterm US Congressional Elections?
17.9 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElectionGeopolitics5mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Other 48.5%-17.9ptLeader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
8
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleFeb 10, 25, 4:07 AMFeb 17, 27, 4:59 AM
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Rules
Earlier this year, Split Ticket released their 2024 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) Model for the 2024 US Election.
- This model measures how well a candidate outperformed "controlling for seat partisanship, incumbency, demographics, and money", and is intended to be a barometer for candidate quality in Congressional races in both the House and the Senate.
- For this market, I will only consider incumbent candidates in 2026 (whether or not they win their race).
- 2024's worst performing incumbents were Senator Deb Fischer (R-NE) at D+17.7 and Representative Ilhan Omar (D:MN-05) at R+13.1.
- This question will be resolved to the single worst performing incumbent in all of Congress.
- https://split-ticket.org/full-wins-above-replacement-war-database/
