On January 1st 2027, will I think Dulce Consuelo Diaz Morales is obviously a US citizen?
One-OffUS PoliticsSociety & Culture2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 62.6%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleFeb 13, 26, 11:08 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
US Military kills 1+ US Citizen in military strike on alleged drug traffickers?
Manifold MarketsIf a US citizen is deported before 2029, will they be returned to the US before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump succeed in revoking the citizenship of any birthright US citizen?
Manifold MarketsWill I (an 18-year-old male US citizen) be drafted into the US military before Jan 1, 2029?
Manifold MarketsIf the GOP wins a trifecta in 2024, will a national 6 week or less abortion ban be passed by the midterm election?
Manifold MarketsDid Donald Trump have gay sex?
Manifold MarketsRules
DHS had detained Diaz Morales, who claims to be a US citizen; their official statement is that she is Mexican with no legal status in the US.
- As of the time of writing, she is temporarily released with an ankle monitor and check-ins with ICE.
- [tweet]https://www.newsweek.com/ice-detains-maryland-woman-us-citizen-claims-dhs-denies-11257159
- Resolves YES if I think she is obviously a US citizen on January 1st 2027.
- Update 2026-02-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator clarifies that the resolution standard is whether they think it's "obviously" a US citizen - a higher standard than just thinking it's true.
- The creator acknowledges this is a subjective judgment that may be difficult for traders to verify or predict, and that they could potentially weigh evidence wrongly at resolution time.
