If a US citizen is deported before 2029, will they be returned to the US before 2029?
One-OffUS Politics2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 7:26 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 67.7%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleApr 15, 25, 4:10 AM UTCJan 15, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Resolves N/A if no U.S. citizens are deported before 2029 (however, see below).
- Resolves YES if any U.S. citizen is deported before 2029, and they return to the U.S. in any capacity before 2029.
- Otherwise, resolves NO.
- I will apply the same caveats (e.g. involving denaturalization) as https://manifold.markets/Gabrielle/will-the-us-deport-an-american-citi ; this market will resolve N/A if and only if that market resolves NO.
- To clarify — if more than one U.S. citizen is deported from the U.S. before 2029, this will resolve YES if at least one of them is returned before 2029, and no otherwise.
- I may trade in this market.