Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 82%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleApr 16, 25, 7:11 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Resolution criteria:
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before December 31, 2028, at least one U.S. citizen is confirmed to have been detained in El Salvador's Terrorism Confinement Center (CECOT).
- The person must have been a citizen at the time that they were detained; if they lost their citizenship then it does not count.
- The confirmation must come from credible news sources or official government statements.
- If no such detention is confirmed by the end of 2028, the market will resolve to "No."
- The Terrorism Confinement Center (CECOT) is a maximum-security prison in Tecoluca, El Salvador, inaugurated in January 2023.
Open markets
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+16 more outcomes
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- J.D. Vance50%
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+39 more outcomes
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- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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- 24h Vol
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+38 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for US citizen sent to CECOT before EOY 2028??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 82% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does US citizen sent to CECOT before EOY 2028? resolve?
- US citizen sent to CECOT before EOY 2028? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2028.
- How is US citizen sent to CECOT before EOY 2028? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria: