Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 8:50 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 82%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleApr 16, 25, 7:11 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
If a US citizen is deported before 2029, will they be returned to the US before 2029?
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KalshiWill Trump sit for a deposition in his BBC lawsuit?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria:
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before December 31, 2028, at least one U.S. citizen is confirmed to have been detained in El Salvador's Terrorism Confinement Center (CECOT).
- The person must have been a citizen at the time that they were detained; if they lost their citizenship then it does not count.
- The confirmation must come from credible news sources or official government statements.
- If no such detention is confirmed by the end of 2028, the market will resolve to "No."
- The Terrorism Confinement Center (CECOT) is a maximum-security prison in Tecoluca, El Salvador, inaugurated in January 2023.
