Current community forecast
Other 40.6%Leader of 14 outcomes
Forecasters
16
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingMar 2, 24, 5:54 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 8:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next person to become the paramount leader of the People's Republic of China, after the named outcome ceases to be the paramount leader of the People's Republic of China.
- If the named outcome holds the title of paramount leader of the People's Republic of China for at least 365 days after the named outcome ceases to be the paramount leader of the People's Republic of China, this market shall resolve to "the named outcome".
- If the named outcome ceases to be the paramount leader of the People's Republic of China and does not regain the title of paramount leader of the People's Republic of China for at least 24 hours, this market shall resolve to "the named outcome" if he is the next person to become the paramount leader of the People's Republic of China within 365 days of the date the named outcome ceased to be the paramount leader of the People's Republic of China.
- All prior references to "People's Republic of China" in this description refer to the current state officially known as the People's Republic of China, as well as to any future name the state may have, and to the successor state of the People's Republic of China if the current People's Republic of China ceases to exist.
- This market currently closes at 8:00 UTC on 1 January 2028.
- This may change to a later date if needed.
Open markets
ChinaPOLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $116.3K
POLYMARKETXi Jinping out before 2027?
- No+0.2pt96%
- Yes-0.2pt4%
- Total Vol
- $13.1M
- 24h Vol
- $45K
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Beijing on September 9?
- 26°C+11.5pt52.4%
- 27°C+1.0pt22.9%
- 25°C-3.0pt16.2%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- No72.3%
- Yes27.7%
- Total Vol
- $414.1K
- 24h Vol
- $15.6K
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
- No+1.0pt89.1%
- Yes-1.0pt10.9%
- Total Vol
- $3.1M
- 24h Vol
- $12.8K
POLYMARKETWill Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
- October 31+1.4pt98%
- December 31+1.7pt97%
- September 30+0.5pt95%
+3 more outcomes
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- Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will be the next paramount leader of China??
- Manifold Markets prices Other at 41% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Who will be the next paramount leader of China? resolve?
- Who will be the next paramount leader of China? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2028.
- How is Who will be the next paramount leader of China? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next person to become the paramount leader of the People's Republic of China, after the named outcome ceases to be the paramount leader of the People's Republic of China.