Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by which date?
0.1 pts (24h)US PoliticsOne-OffRussia / UkraineGeopolitics3mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
2026 3%-0.1ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
65 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$375.9
Liquidity
$25.3K
High liquiditySpread
0.7 pt
Tight spreadComments
127
7d Change
-0.5 pts
Market data
Updated 2 minutes ago
Feb 6, 25, 11:19 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to formally recognize Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement.
- If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
- An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory for any amount of time will count.
- An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
