Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastAt the end of February 2027 10.7%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
9
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleMay 18, 26, 9:01 PM UTCFeb 28, 27, 7:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Ukraine control any part of Crimea for at least a week before the end of 2026?
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Manifold MarketsAt the end of the war, will Ukraine control any territory they didn’t control at the start?
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PolymarketWho wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- Each option will resolve YES if, at the stated time, Ukraine has de facto control of the entirety of central Konstantinovka, Donetsk Oblast.
- For the purpose of this market, this refers to the area shaded yellow in the image below:
- [image]Each option will resolve NO if, at the stated time, any part of this area is contested or controlled by Russia.
- For the duration of the war, any YES or NO resolution must be supported by a majority of the following mappers:
- Black Bird Group