Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
0.9 pts (24h)US PoliticsPoliticsOne-OffGeopoliticsMiddle EastRussia / UkraineEurope3mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 96%+0.9pt
Market quality
68 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$70
Liquidity
$17.8K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
4.2% / 4.4%
Spread
0.2 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
+0.1 pts
Market data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Nov 13, 25, 11:12 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution.
- Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count.
- Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
- For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
