Conditional on Iran developing a nuclear weapon, will Iran pre-emptively nuke Israel?
GeopoliticsOne-OffMiddle East4y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 86.1%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleMar 20, 26, 11:27 PM UTCJan 1, 31, 12:26 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Conditional on Iran developing a nuclear weapon, will Iran nuke Israel?
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PolymarketRules
Resolves yes if Iran builds a nuclear weapon and then pre-emptively nukes Israel, without Israel first nuking Iran.
- Resolves N/A if Iran does not develop a nuclear weapon.