Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 5:45 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 90.5%
Forecasters
23
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 19 hours ago
StaleFeb 18, 24, 1:33 PM UTCJan 1, 31, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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FutuurRules
Resolves yes if Iran detonates or attempts to detonate a nuclear weapon against an enemy country or force by December 31, 2030.
- Of course, this is related to the question whether Iran will develop a nuclear weapon by 2030.
- (See https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-iran-have-a-nuclear-weapon-by-958ce4dc195c).
- Will resolve no if Iran does not have any nuclear weapons.