FutuurCheck availabilityVerified resolution dataCurrent implied probability
No 80%
No 80%Market quality
33 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$1.2K
Low liquidityTraders
10
Comments
0
Market data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Trends
Rules
This event predicts whether any nuclear weapon explosive test will be conducted anywhere in the world between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive).
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be confirmations published by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) Preparatory Commission.
- If the CTBTO confirms that at least one nuclear weapon explosive test occurred during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- Suspected or alleged tests that are not confirmed by the CTBTO will not count.
- If evidence is ambiguous or confirmation is delayed, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major international news organizations citing CTBTO or equivalent authoritative findings.
