Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 93.3%
Forecasters
40
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleJan 3, 23, 7:17 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the US or Israel threaten to use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill the US or Israel use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran use Nuclear weapons?
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PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
PolymarketRules
It will be resolved YES if a reliable source reports that Iran has fired a nuclear weapon at Israel (it doesn't matter where the launch was and it doesn't matter if the missile is intercepted on his way).
Open markets
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Iran use nuclear weapons against Israel before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 93% as of September 18, 2026.
- When does Will Iran use nuclear weapons against Israel before 2030? resolve?
- Will Iran use nuclear weapons against Israel before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.
- How is Will Iran use nuclear weapons against Israel before 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: It will be resolved YES if a reliable source reports that Iran has fired a nuclear weapon at Israel (it doesn't matter where the launch was and it doesn't matter if the missile is intercepted on his way).