PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
September 30 3%+0.1ptLeader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
69 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$3.1K
Liquidity
$44.1K
High liquiditySpread
1.3 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
-4.8 pts
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Jul 14, 26, 11:50 PM UTCSep 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Houthis take a qualifying military action against Israel by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time (IDT, GMT+3).
- Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
- A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the Houthis, that directly impacts Israeli ground territory.
- An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones.
- A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
- The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.