PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
December 31 12%Leader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
64 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1.1K
Liquidity
$27.2K
High liquiditySpread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Sep 17, 26, 2:53 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 8:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Russia military action against EU country by which date?
PolymarketPakistan military action against Yemen by which date?
PolymarketFrance, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen by which date?
PolymarketWill both the House and Senate pass a resolution to limit military action in Iran?
Manifold MarketsWill the EU AI Act lead to an enforcement action against a frontier AI lab in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Pokemon take action against the Pokenot collectible card project by Dysfunctional Passholder by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Houthis take a qualifying military action against Mecca by the specified date, 11:59 PM Arabia Standard Time (AST).
- Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
- A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the Houthis, that directly impacts Mecca.
- An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones.
- A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
- The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.