Russia military action against EU country by which date?
0.5 pts (24h)GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / UkraineEurope3mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
December 31 18%-0.5pt
Market quality
71 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$16.5K
Liquidity
$68.3K
High liquidityBid / Ask
17.0% / 19.0%
Spread
2.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
2
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Sep 19, 26, 12:37 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Pakistan military action against Yemen by which date?
PolymarketFrance, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen by which date?
PolymarketHouthi military action against Mecca by which date?
PolymarketWill both the House and Senate pass a resolution to limit military action in Iran?
Manifold MarketsWill the EU AI Act lead to an enforcement action against a frontier AI lab in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Pokemon take action against the Pokenot collectible card project by Dysfunctional Passholder by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia takes a qualifying military action against an EU member state between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Russia, that directly impacts an EU member state.
- An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones.
- A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
- The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of Russia.