PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
2027 · —
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Stored reference
2027 21%Leader of 3 outcomes
2027 21%Market quality
67 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$3.4K
Liquidity
$20.4K
Medium liquidityOpen interest
$109.6K
Bid / Ask
— / —
2027Spread
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Comments
5
7d Change
-4.5 pts
Market data
Updated 35 minutes ago
Sep 19, 26, 12:37 AM UTCJan 1, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
September 30Lost
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Top holders
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Market depth · 2027
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which EU country will disqualify a major presidential candidate or a major political party next?
Manifold MarketsEuropean military action against Iran by which date?
PolymarketUS military action against Cuba by which date?
PolymarketPakistan military action against Yemen by which date?
PolymarketSaudi Arabia military action against Iran by which date?
PolymarketWhat will be the highest level of U.S. military action against Cuba by the end of January 31, 2027?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia takes a qualifying military action against an EU member state between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Russia, that directly impacts an EU member state.
- An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones.
- A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
- The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of Russia.