Saudi Arabia military action against Iran by which date?
1.5 pts (24h)GeopoliticsOne-OffMiddle East1mo
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Data as of Nov 5, 2026, 4:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
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December 31 · —
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December 31 14%Leader of 3 outcomes
December 31 14%Market quality
33 / 100
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$115.3
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Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingSep 17, 26, 2:27 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 8:29 PM UTC
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October 31Lost
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Manifold Markets[ACX 2026] Will Saudi Arabia and Israel agree to normalise diplomatic relations during 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Saudi Arabia takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST).
- Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
- A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Saudi Arabia, that directly impacts Iran.
- An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones.
- A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
- The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.