Saudi Arabia military action against Iran by which date?
3.9 pts (24h)GeopoliticsOne-OffMiddle East3mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
December 31 14%-11.0ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
51 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1.4K
Liquidity
$4.2K
Medium liquiditySpread
5.2 pt
Wide spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Sep 17, 26, 2:27 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 8:29 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Saudi Arabia takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST).
- Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
- A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Saudi Arabia, that directly impacts Iran.
- An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones.
- A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
- The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.