European military action against Iran by which date?
GeopoliticsOne-OffMiddle EastRussia / UkraineEurope2mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
December 31 · —
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December 31 6%Leader of 4 outcomes
December 31 6%Market quality
61 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$71
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$34.8K
High liquidityBid / Ask
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December 31Spread
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9
7d Change
-0.5 pts
Market data
Updated 29 minutes ago
Jul 20, 26, 2:27 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 10:59 PM UTC
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Market depth · December 31
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European country takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Central European Summer Time (CEST).
- Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
- A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by any European country, that directly impacts Iran.
- An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones.
- A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
- For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.