[ACX 2026] Will Saudi Arabia and Israel agree to normalise diplomatic relations during 2026?
One-OffMiddle EastGeopolitics3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 90.2%
Forecasters
47
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Jan 6, 26, 11:28 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Saudi Arabia and Israel announce the establishment of official diplomatic relations before the end of 2026?
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FutuurWill Mexico and _____ resume diplomatic relations in 2026?
FutuurRules
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/41087)
- Resolves according to Metaculus resolution.
- Metaculus high-level description: This question will resolve as Yes if both Israel and Saudi Arabia announce that they have reached an agreement to normalise relations before January 1, 2027, even if that agreement is conditional.
Open markets
Middle EastPOLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+18.3pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $29.8M
- 24h Vol
- $836K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.6pt47.5%
- October 31-1.0pt28.7%
- September 30-2.0pt13.1%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+3.4pt55.7%
- Benjamin Netanyahu-3.0pt27.8%
- Naftali Bennett8.3%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+3.0pt80%
- September 18+2.0pt75%
- September 11+12.0pt71%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.3pt98%
- Yes-0.3pt2%
- Total Vol
- $8M
- 24h Vol
- $113.6K
KALSHIWhen will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Before Jan 1, 2029-2.0pt69%
- Before Jul 1, 2028-1.0pt67%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-1.0pt64%
+11 more outcomes
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Netanyahu out by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for [ACX 2026] Will Saudi Arabia and Israel agree to normalise diplomatic relations during 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 90% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does [ACX 2026] Will Saudi Arabia and Israel agree to normalise diplomatic relations during 2026? resolve?
- [ACX 2026] Will Saudi Arabia and Israel agree to normalise diplomatic relations during 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is [ACX 2026] Will Saudi Arabia and Israel agree to normalise diplomatic relations during 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/41087)