PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
December 31 14%+1.0pt
Market quality
60 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$112.8
Liquidity
$19.8K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
14.0% / 15.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
25
7d Change
+6.0 pts
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Jan 6, 26, 7:39 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and the named outcome, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
- A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership.
- Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
- Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt.
- Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
Open markets
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Iran coup attempt by which date??
- Polymarket prices December 31 at 14% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Iran coup attempt by which date? resolve?
- Iran coup attempt by which date? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Iran coup attempt by which date? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and the named outcome, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.