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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Geopolitics
  3. Iran coup attempt by June 30?
Iran coup attempt by June 30?

Iran coup attempt by June 30?

0.7% (24h)One-OffGeopoliticsMiddle East18d
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 4%+0.0%
Market quality

89 / 100

High quality
24h Volume

$20K

Liquidity

$31.3K

High liquidity
Bid / Ask

3.8% / 4.0%

Spread

5.3%

Moderate spread
7d Change

-1.3%

Market data

Updated 2 minutes ago

Jan 6, 26, 7:45 PMJun 30, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes4%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
  • A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership.
  • Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
  • Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt.
  • Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.

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Active in these topics

BitcoinBTC$62,088.95+1.39%EthereumETH$1,636.01+0.87%SolanaSOL$64.49+0.38%DogecoinDOGE$0.0839+0.22%XRPXRP$1.11-0.83%BNBBNB$591.58+0.85%

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Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
  • A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership.
  • Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
  • Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt.
  • Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.