Will there be a coup attempt against Donald Trump during his second term?
PoliticsGeopoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 89.2%
Forecasters
65
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleNov 9, 24, 5:49 AM UTCJan 22, 29, 7:59 AM UTC
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PolymarketRules
Since what counts as a "coup" and what is sufficient grounds for a coup to have been "attempted" are potentially tricky to adjudicate, I will use my best judgement when deciding edge cases.
- I am open to arguments and will aim to resolve according to the the spirit of the question.
- That being said, to provide some insight into what I will be looking for, I imagine that a "coup attempt" is a serious, deliberate effort to forcibly seize the federal executive branch of the United States.
- The effort may be successful or unsuccessful.
- This question resolves YES if a coup attempt is made against Donald Trump during his second term, and NO on 21 Jan 2029 if no coup attempt has occurred.
- This question may also resolve NO early if Donald Trump ceases to be US President and therefore it is not possible to coup him (e.g. death, resignation).
